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Calibration of Sports Betting Markets
More Evidence from the Original Prediction Markets
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Mike Saint-Antoine
4
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Some Cool AI People Who Didn't Make the TIME List
Today TIME magazine published a list of who they consider to be the top 100 most important people in the field of artificial intelligence. There were a…
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Mike Saint-Antoine
Manifold vs Polymarket Volatility Comparison
Comparing LK-99 Prediction Markets
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Mike Saint-Antoine
7
Getting the Easy Alignment Problems Wrong
Against Sesame Maximizers
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Mike Saint-Antoine
2
March Madness Forecasts: FiveThirtyEight vs. Betting Markets
WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AND BORING RESULT
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Mike Saint-Antoine
4
2 Types of Forecast Accuracy
Imagine two people – I’ll call them Partially-Psychic Pete and Just-A-Regular-Guy John – are playing a game where they take turns attempting to make…
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Mike Saint-Antoine
11
Land Use Regulations and Homelessness
Credit to Gary Winslett for noticing this pattern: I saw this tweet from him earlier today, and decided to do a quick analysis to put some numbers on…
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Mike Saint-Antoine
2
What Do Psychic Animals and Mutual Funds Have in Common?
Whenever there’s some big event happening like the World Cup, Olympics, or a presidential election, I often see headlines about psychic animals…
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Mike Saint-Antoine
3
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