Great article! I hadn't really thought about this, but my knee-jerk is to wonder if Polymarket is less efficient than Manifold so that even if a higher volume of people are willing to make risky bets on Manifold the other participants "correct" them before they can move the market much.
It sounds like there's an API in this case, but I'd also point you to Web Plot Digitizer for extracting approximate data from a wide variety of plots. https://apps.automeris.io/wpd/
Manifold vs Polymarket Volatility Comparison
Hi Mike,
You can totally use our API to download all the price data, including every single bet that was made.
Here's the docs for the /bets endpoint: https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0bets
Cheers,
James
(Manifold cofounder)
Great article! I hadn't really thought about this, but my knee-jerk is to wonder if Polymarket is less efficient than Manifold so that even if a higher volume of people are willing to make risky bets on Manifold the other participants "correct" them before they can move the market much.
It sounds like there's an API in this case, but I'd also point you to Web Plot Digitizer for extracting approximate data from a wide variety of plots. https://apps.automeris.io/wpd/