Great article! I hadn't really thought about this, but my knee-jerk is to wonder if Polymarket is less efficient than Manifold so that even if a higher volume of people are willing to make risky bets on Manifold the other participants "correct" them before they can move the market much.
It sounds like there's an API in this case, but I'd also point you to Web Plot Digitizer for extracting approximate data from a wide variety of plots. https://apps.automeris.io/wpd/
as you are likely aware, the "price" that can be seen on a typical Polymarket chart is actually a midpoint between the best bid and best ask. Some orders are getting filled at prices much lower than it can be guessed from the chart and vice versa if traders cancel their bids the price сan "crash" with no trades actually taking place.
Hi Mike,
You can totally use our API to download all the price data, including every single bet that was made.
Here's the docs for the /bets endpoint: https://docs.manifold.markets/api#get-v0bets
Cheers,
James
(Manifold cofounder)
Great article! I hadn't really thought about this, but my knee-jerk is to wonder if Polymarket is less efficient than Manifold so that even if a higher volume of people are willing to make risky bets on Manifold the other participants "correct" them before they can move the market much.
It sounds like there's an API in this case, but I'd also point you to Web Plot Digitizer for extracting approximate data from a wide variety of plots. https://apps.automeris.io/wpd/
as you are likely aware, the "price" that can be seen on a typical Polymarket chart is actually a midpoint between the best bid and best ask. Some orders are getting filled at prices much lower than it can be guessed from the chart and vice versa if traders cancel their bids the price сan "crash" with no trades actually taking place.