Archive - Mike’s Blog

November 2024

Crowdsourced Election Forecast, As Well As My Own

Thank you to everyone who entered the 2024 election forecasting contest! The winners of the cash prizes will be announced once the election results are…

Nov 5, 2024 •

Mike Saint-Antoine

October 2024

September 2024

July 2024

Ode to the American Tinkerer

My favorite thing about this country is the feeling that you can just do things.

Jul 4, 2024 •

Mike Saint-Antoine

May 2024

Book Review: Build, Baby, Build

In Build, Baby, Build, economist Bryan Caplan tries a new strategy that, as far as I know, no libertarian has ever attempted before: actually…

May 27, 2024 •

Mike Saint-Antoine

March 2024

2024 Oscars Prediction Market Comparison

Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, and DraftKings

Mar 11, 2024 •

Mike Saint-Antoine

December 2023

The Case for Legalizing Prediction Markets

In October 2022, Bloomberg published an article with the headline “Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden.” A hundred percent…

Dec 7, 2023 •

Mike Saint-Antoine

November 2023

Calibration of Sports Betting Markets

More Evidence from the Original Prediction Markets

Nov 7, 2023 •

Mike Saint-Antoine

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